The mainstream media has attacked President Donald TrumpвЂ™s decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria as impulsive, blindsiding his own national security team.В But detailed, published accounts of the policy process over the course of the year tell a very different story. They show that senior national security officials and self-interested institutions have been playing a complicated political game for months aimed at keeping Trump from wavering on our indefinite presence on the ground in Syria.
The entire episode thus represents a new variant of a familiar pattern dating back to Vietnam in which national security advisors put pressure on reluctant presidents to go along with existing or proposed military deployments in a war zone. The difference here is that Trump, by publicly choosing a different policy, has blown up their transparent schemes and offered the country a new course, one that does not involve a permanent war state.
The relationship between Trump and his national security team has been tense since the beginning of his administration. By mid-summer 2017, Defense Secretary James Mattis and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Joseph Dunford had become so alarmed at TrumpвЂ™s negative responses to their briefings justifying global U.S. military deployments that they decided to doВ a formal briefing in вЂњthe tank,вЂќ used by the Joint Chiefs for meetings at the Pentagon. В
But when Mattis and Dunford sang the praises of the вЂњrules-based, international democratic orderвЂќ that has вЂњkept the peace for 70 years,вЂќ Trump simplyВ shook his head in disbelief.
By the end of that year, however, Mattis, Dunford, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo believed they’d succeeded in getting Trump to use U.S. troops not only to defeat Islamic State but to вЂњstabilizeвЂќ the entire northeast sector of Syria and balance Russian and Iranian-sponsored forces. Yet they ignored warning signs of TrumpвЂ™s continuing displeasure with their vision of a more or less permanent American military presence in Syria. В
In a March rally in Ohio ostensibly about health care reform, Trump suddenly blurted out, вЂњWeвЂ™re coming out of Syria, like, very soon. Let the other people take care of it now. Very soonвЂ”very soon weвЂ™re coming out.вЂќВ
Then in early April 2018, TrumpвЂ™s impatience with his advisors on Syria boiled over into a major confrontation at a National Security Council meeting, whereВ he ordered them unequivocally to accept a fundamentally different Syria deployment policy. В
Trump opened the meeting with his public stance that the United States must end its intervention in Syria and the Middle East more broadly. He argued repeatedly that the U.S. had gotten вЂњnothingвЂќ for its efforts, according to an account published by the Associated PressВ based on interviews with administration officials who had been briefed on the meeting. When Dunford asked him to state exactly what he wanted, Trump answered that he favored an immediate withdrawal of U.S. forces and an end to the вЂњstabilizationвЂќ program in Syria.
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Mattis responded that an immediate withdrawal from Syria was impossible to carry out responsibly, would risk the return of Islamic State, and would play into the hands of Russia, Iran, and Turkey, whose interests ran counter to those of the United States.
Trump reportedly then relented and said they have could five or six months to destroy the Islamic State. But he also made it clear that he did not want them to come back to him in October and say that they had been unable to defeat ISIS and had to remain in Syria. When his advisors reiterated that they didn’t think America could withdraw responsibly, Trump told them to вЂњjust get it done.вЂќВ
TrumpвЂ™s national security team had prepared carefully for the meeting in order to steer him away from an explicit timetable for withdrawal. They had brought papers that omitted any specific options for withdrawal timetables. Instead, as the detailed AP account shows, they framed the options as a binary choiceвЂ”either an immediate pullout or an indefinite presence in order to ensure the complete and permanent defeat of Islamic State. The leave option was described as risking a return of ISIS and leaving a power vacuum for Russia and Iran to fill.
Such a binary strategy had worked in the past, according to administration sources. That would account for TrumpвЂ™s long public silence on SyriaВ during the early months of 2018 while then-secretary of state Rex Tillerson and Mattis were articulating detailed arguments for a long-term military commitment.
Another reason the approach had been so successful, however, was that Trump had made such a big issue out of Barack Obama giving the Pentagon a timetable for withdrawal from Afghanistan. As a result, he was hesitant to go public with a similar request for a Syria timetable. AsВ CNN reported, a DoD official who had been briefed on the meeting вЂњrejected that any sort of timeline was discussed.вЂќ Furthermore the official asserted that Mattis вЂњwas not asked to draw up withdrawal optionsвЂ¦.вЂќ Lieutenant General Kenneth McKenzie, the director of the Joint Chiefs, alsoВ told reporters, вЂњthe president has actually been very good in not giving us a specific timeline.вЂќ
Nevertheless, without referring to a timeline, the White House issued a short statement saying that the U.S. role in Syria was coming to aВ вЂњrapid end.вЂќ
Mattis and Dunford were consciously exploiting TrumpвЂ™s defensiveness about a timeline to press ahead with their own strategy unless and until Trump publicly called them on it. That is what finally happened some weeks after TrumpвЂ™s six month deadline had passed. The claims by Trump advisors that they were taken by surprise was indeed disingenuous. What happened last week was that Trump followed up on the clear policy he had laid down in April.
The Syria withdrawal affair is a dramatic illustration of the fundamental quandary of the Trump presidency in regard to ending the state of permanent war that previous administrations created. Although a solid majority of Americans want to rein in U.S. military deployments in the Middle East and Africa, Trump’s national security team is committed to doing the opposite.
Trump is now well aware that it is virtually impossible to carry out the foreign policy that he wants without advisors who are committed to the same objective. That means that he must find people who have remained outside the system during the permanent war years while being highly critical of its whole ideology and culture. If he can fill key positions with truly dissident figures, the last two years of his administration could decisively clip the wings of the bureaucrats and generals who have created the permanent war state we find ourselves in today.
Gareth Porter is an investigative reporter and regular contributor toВ The American Conservative. He is also the author ofВ Manufactured Crisis: The Untold Story of the Iran Nuclear Scare.
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